By the way, how much attention are “plant factories” getting from the public?
In Japan, the search demand for the keyword “plant factory” peaked around 2010 and has been flat since around 2020.
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Search Volume for “Plant Factory”
Trends in the number of searches for “plant factory”
Around 2010, when I entered the industry, there was a boom, but now it feels like it has passed.
However, in the midst of tough social conditions for the plant factory industry, such as the weak yen and rising prices, the downward trend has stopped and remained flat.
This may suggest that the temporary boom for plant factories has ended, and they have become established in society.
Search Volume for “Vertical Farm”
Trends in the number of searches for “Vertical farm”
Search Volume for “Indoor Farm”
Trends in the number of searches for “Indoor farm”
On the other hand, globally, English keywords such as “vertical farm” and “indoor farm” have been increasing since around 2006.
This suggests a growing interest in urban agriculture.
In fact, the market size of plant factories is expanding globally, and this trend is expected to continue.
Plant factories gradually began to attract attention in the 1980s, and there have been three boom-like situations in Japan so far.
1st Boom (Late 1980s)
Mainly an era focused on technology development and demonstration experiments.
Even so, the world’s first “Plant Factory System Exhibition” was held in 1987, and many companies and research institutions began to participate.
2nd Boom (1990s)
Many major companies entered the market, and the construction of plant factories increased significantly.
However, due to the technological level at the time, there were many cost-related issues, and they did not become widespread.
3rd Boom (2009 onwards)
Triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, the importance of ensuring a stable food supply was re-recognized, and expectations for plant factories increased.
Around this time, technological innovation was progressing, and business prospects became clear, leading to a period of full-scale adoption.
Plant factories in Japan have developed ahead of the rest of the world.
However, there are still many challenges. As I have written in other articles, plant factories are very expensive.
In recent years, the impact of rising raw material prices and the weak yen has been quite severe.
I have written about this in detail in another article. Please check it out as well.
In summary, the plant factory boom in Japan has calmed down, while globally, the expansion trend continues.
There are still many challenges, so in order to further expand the market size, we have to overcome those challenges.
Therefore, I will consider what will happen to the challenges that plant factories are currently facing in the future.
Challenge 1: High Construction and Operating Costs
Without large-scale and automated operations, it takes time to recover the initial investment, and the barrier to entry remains high.
If energy prices and material prices continue to rise, management will be strained, and more major companies may withdraw.
If cost reduction is successful, small and medium-sized enterprises and individuals can enter the market, which will promote its spread. However, from the perspective of those on the ground, this is still a long way off.
Challenge 2: High Energy Consumption
If the energy source remains dependent on fossil fuels, it may be excluded from ESG investment targets.
If the introduction of renewable energy progresses, it will not only reduce the environmental burden but also lead to the stabilization of energy costs.
The evolution of energy-saving technologies (especially LED lighting) is inevitable.
Challenge 3: Limited Variety of Cultivated Crops
If the product lineup remains centered on leafy vegetables, the market size will be limited, and demand will plateau.
On the other hand, if cultivation technologies for fruit vegetables, root vegetables, and high-value-added crops (medicinal plants, functional vegetables, etc.) are established, the market has the potential to expand rapidly.
Challenge 4: Lagging Human Resource Development and Lack of Specialized Knowledge
If there is a shortage of specialized personnel, the speed of technological innovation will slow down.
If human resource development institutions and educational programs specializing in plant factories are expanded, the technological level will be raised, accelerating the growth of the entire industry.
Even if labor-saving is achieved through AI and robot technology, there will still be a need for personnel who can manage and operate them. In fact, in the future, skill sets specialized in the latest technologies will be even more necessary.
Challenge 5: Lack of Legal Regulations and Standards
If legal regulations and industry standards regarding cultivation methods and quality control unique to plant factories are not established, there is a possibility that quality variations and safety problems may occur.
If legal regulations and standards are clarified, consumer confidence will improve, leading to the sound development of the market.
If international standards are developed, exports will also come into view.
Predicting Scenarios for Plant Factory Development
So, what kind of story would it be if plant factories dramatically increased (became a boom) in the future? I will predict a plausible future with my own delusions.
Background of the Story: Japanese Agriculture Reaching its Limits and the Impending Food Crisis
In 2030, Japanese agriculture faces a serious crisis. The aging of farmers continues to worsen, the average age exceeds 70, and the shortage of successors is critical.
Abandoned farmland continues to expand, and the food self-sufficiency rate falls to dangerous levels.
The frequent occurrence of natural disasters due to climate change is also exacerbating the situation, and the traditional agricultural model relying on open-field cultivation is reaching its limits. The depopulation of rural areas is also progressing, and the decline of regional economies is becoming serious.
Turning Point: Smart Agriculture and Plant Factories as Engines for Regional Revitalization
In order to overcome this critical situation, the government promotes “smart agriculture” as a national strategy.
Among them, plant factories are attracting great expectations as a trump card to overcome structural issues such as aging and the shortage of successors, and to regenerate Japanese agriculture. In particular, the following points will expand the potential of plant factories.
Labor Saving through Automation Technology:
Environmental management by AI control and work automation by robots are progressing, freeing people from heavy labor. It becomes easier for the elderly and women to engage in vegetable production.
Stable Production Unaffected by Weather:
Plant factories are less affected by climate change such as typhoons, long rains, and intense heat, and can provide stable production throughout the year.
Expansion of Sales Channels by Developing in the Suburbs of Urban Areas:
By constructing plant factories in urban areas and their suburbs, transportation costs can be reduced, and fresh vegetables can be delivered directly to consumers. Efforts are also being made to produce high-value-added vegetables and branded vegetables, improving profitability.
Promotion of Regional Resource Utilization and Circular Agriculture:
Abandoned farmland and idle facilities in rural areas are converted into plant factories, creating regional employment. A circular model that utilizes unused regional resources (hot spring heat, woody biomass, etc.) as energy sources is also becoming widespread.
The Future of the Japanese Dining Table: Sustainable Food Supply and Regional Regeneration
In 2040, Japanese agriculture is wonderfully regenerated by a new technology called plant factory. Abandoned farmland decreases, and the food self-sufficiency rate recovers. Plant factories in rural areas contribute to the revitalization of regional economies, and young people are returning to rural areas.
Supermarkets are lined with an abundance of safe, secure, and high-quality domestically produced plant factory vegetables, and consumers can enjoy fresh, locally produced vegetables on a daily basis. In aging rural areas, plant factories create new employment, and the regional community is revitalized.
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