Vegetable prices have been skyrocketing from 2024 to 2025.
The reason is the record-breaking heat and drought in 2024 as well.
However, the rise in vegetable prices has been predicted for quite some time.
Did you know that?
Japanese agriculture is currently in a serious situation.
The number of farmers is decreasing year by year due to the aging population, and there is a possibility that farmers will disappear all at once in 10 years.
If that happens, what will happen to our food?
If this situation continues, fresh vegetables may disappear from our dining tables, and prices may rise even further.
It’s a very scary story, but it’s real.
As a countermeasure, let’s make the most of the fact that Japan is a leading country in plant factories.
This article discusses this.
The advantages and disadvantages of plant factories are detailed in the following article. Please read it together.
The number of people engaged in agriculture in Japan is decreasing year by year, falling to 1.36 million in 2020.
This is a decrease of about 34% compared to 2.05 million in 2010, 10 years ago.
Furthermore, the average age of the agricultural workforce is very high at 67.8 years, and the aging population is progressing.
The particularly problematic issue is that the time when elderly farmers will retire all at once is approaching. If a large number of farmers in their late 60s and 70s retire, the amount of food available will drop sharply.
That will become a reality by around 2035.
To put it mildly, it’s a “critical situation.”
Of course, there are a certain number of new farmers, but it is not enough to compensate for the decreasing number of farmers. The number of new farmers in 2022 was 31,400 per year, which is not enough at all.
At this rate, the decline in the number of farmers cannot be stopped.
In other words, agricultural products may become more valuable than they are now. If that happens, prices will naturally rise.
The Role of Large-Scale Farmers and Agricultural Corporations
However, it’s not like there’s no way out…
While the number of small-scale farmers is decreasing, large-scale farmers and agricultural corporations are attracting attention. According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the number of large-scale farmers with sales of 100 million yen or more increased 1.2 times in the five years from 2015 to 2020.
Large-scale farmers are achieving cost reductions and improved productivity through efficient agricultural management. They are also proactive in introducing advanced technologies, which stabilizes production.
The number of agricultural corporations is also increasing. In the five years from 2015 to 2020, the number of agricultural corporations increased by about 30% from 22,800 to 30,700.
It would be good if the production volume of large-scale farmers and agricultural corporations increased enough to offset the production volume of disappearing farmers…
I don’t know what will actually happen. And the scary point is exactly this.
What’s Really Scary is Not Knowing What Will Happen
With the number of farmers decreasing, the future of food production in Japan is unpredictable.
Even if the number of farmers decreases, won’t the overall production value remain the same…? There are also predictions like that.
In fact, Japan’s agricultural production value has not changed much in the past 20 years. The total agricultural output in 2000 was 9.1 trillion yen, and in 2020 it was 8.9 trillion yen, so it has only decreased by 2% in 20 years.
The number of farmers is decreasing, right? Why doesn’t the output decrease?
One possible factor is that small-scale farmers with annual sales of less than 5 million yen account for 80% of the total, but farmers with sales of 5 million yen or more account for only 20% of the total.
However, these 20% of farmers are responsible for 80% of Japan’s total agricultural production.
In other words, most of the production is done by large-scale farmers.
That means that even if the number of small-scale farmers decreases, the impact will be small. That’s the prediction.
However, it is inevitable that the number of farmers will decrease drastically in the future. The current situation is that it is not clear what will happen to Japan’s food supply.
However, there is no doubt that the role of large-scale farmers and agricultural corporations will become increasingly important.
The Role of Plant Factories Demanded by Society
That’s why there are high expectations for plant factories.
Plant factories can produce crops on a large scale, and they are not affected by the weather, which is a major factor in rising prices.
Japan is a leading country in plant factories and has high technological capabilities. There is a possibility that productivity will continue to increase in the future.
Specifically, what roles are expected of plant factories by society? There are three main categories:
Stable food supply: A stable food supply system that is not affected by climate change or the decrease in the number of farmers.
Ensuring food safety: Providing safe and high-quality vegetables with minimal use of pesticides.
Revitalizing the local economy: Creating new agricultural businesses centered on plant factories and securing employment.
What kind of things can actually be done with plant factories?
I have written passionately about this in detail in the following article. Please read it together.
Plant factories are different from conventional soil-based agriculture, but in terms of growing plants and producing food, they can be considered agriculture in a broad sense. They can be seen as a new form of agriculture that utilizes the latest technologies.
What are the negative aspects of growing in plant factories?
Plant factories have the disadvantage of requiring large initial investments and high operating costs. In particular, energy costs such as electricity are a major burden. Also, in the case of completely artificial light-type plant factories, since they do not use sunlight at all, they sometimes receive criticism from the perspective of sustainability.
Why are plant factories in the red?
Plant factories tend to have low profitability due to high initial investments and operating costs such as utilities. Also, their production products have weak price competitiveness, and the selling price in the market is often below the production cost, making it difficult to make a profit.
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